The main drivers and constraints underlying food insecurity and safety are:

Population dynamics. A rising population and an increasing move towards urbanisation will affect land usage and erosion. Emerging economies have increasing levels of disposable income, resulting in changing food consumption patterns and, in particular, an increasing consumption of animal, including fish, protein. Studies have predicted a global increase in the consumption of meat (annual per capita meat consumption) in developing countries from 28 kg in 2002 to 37 kg in 2030 and in developed countries from 78 kg in 2002 to 89 kg in 2030 [18], placing a heavy burden on livestock and aquatic organism production. The increased globalisation of trade and people may lead to exposure to new pathogens and to the emergence of new pathogens. There is also the need to provide food to a higher safety specification for an increasing number of susceptible individuals (such as the elderly and immunocompromised).

Climate change. Climate change will affect food security through its impact on all components of the food system process along the food chain. Mitigating climate change requires that we reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and this means that those involved in food production will need to adopt good working practices for mitigating climate change. There are concerns that some of the effects of climate change will increase the global burden of disease in crops and animals, including humans, and to diseases becoming prevalent in parts of the world where they are currently only a minor issue or not an issue at all. Further work needs to be done to model the effects of predicted 21st century climate change on disease epidemics. For example, warming of European countries has seen the emergence of bluetongue in livestock owing to changes in distribution of the insect vector. Patterns of food spoilage may also be affected by climate change too.

Energy usage. Farming in developed countries is not sustainable without mineral fertilisers, and the energy to make these contributes to a crop’s carbon footprint. For example, manufacture of nitrogen fertilisers uses about 5% of the world’s natural gas production; this is equivalent approximately 1.2% of the world’s total annual energy consumption [19].

Mineral availability. Some mineral resources are limited. For example, reserves of phosphate (a key nutrient for plant growth) are predicted, under current conditions, to last for approximately only 125 years. However, it has also been predicted that clean phosphate rock will run out in approximately 50 years if growth remains at 3% [20]. There are no substitutes for phosphate in agriculture and phosphorous will need to be recovered and reused, or methods found to make the considerable amounts of phosphate present in soil bioavailable.

Water availability. Less than 1% of the world’s water is fresh [21], and 70% of that fresh water is used for food production [22]. This means that water will become a critical factor in the future, so new ways need to be found to make more efficient use of the available fresh water, while ensuring its quality.

Globalisation. This can be defined as the spread and connectedness of production, communication and technologies across the world. It leads to increased integration and interdependency between countries.